Shorts Eye Intel’s Earnings Moves – Seeking Alpha
When Intel (INTC) reports its Q1 results in tonight’s after-hours session, short traders will be keen to watch its post-earnings evening trade. Regardless of the direction INTC shares take tonight, the stock has a historical tendency to add to after-hours declines in next-day trade as well as reverse or narrow its earnings-driven after-hours gains in follow-on regular session trade.
INTC is a stock for longs to be wary of in the off-hours, and an issue for shorts to line up if it should post an earnings-driven after-hours upside move. INTC has advanced in the after-hours in 18 of the last 28 quarters we’ve tracked. However, it saw that advance reverse or narrow in next day trade in 16 of those quarters, or 89% of the time.
The stock has recorded 10 quarters in which it posted an earnings-driven after-hours decline. In five of those events it recorded a more aggressive downside move the following regular session. The historical data on the downside is evenly mixed, but even with a sharp split it’s still more ammunition for shorts to linger near the stock on a negative evening move.
INTC is expected to report a Q1 profit of $0.46 per share on revenue of $11.59 billion, according to Thomson Reuters.
Here’s the stock’s historical performance data:
On Jan. 13, 2011, INTC advanced 2.5% in evening trading after beating Q4 estimates and setting its Q1 revenue guidance above Street estimates. The stock reversed direction the following day, closing the Jan. 14 regular session down 1%.
On Oct. 12, 2010, INTC edged up 0.6% in after-hours trading after beating Q3 estimates and setting its guidance in a range that straddled the Street view. The stock lost its upside the following day, closing the Oct. 13 regular session down 2.6%.
On July 13, 2010, INTC charged 8.1% higher in after-hours trading after reporting better-than-expected results and guidance. The stock saw most of its gains evaporate in next-day trading, ending the July 14 regular session up 1.6%.
On April 13, 2010, INTC advanced 3.7% in after-hours trading after beating Q1 expectations and setting its Q2 revenue view above Street estimates. The stock cut its upside slightly the next day, closing the April 14 regular session up 3.3%.
On Jan. 14, 2010, INTC edged up 0.8% in after-hours action following better-than-expected Q4 results and in-line revenue guidance. The stock lost its gain the following day, closing the Jan. 15 regular session down 3.1%.
On Oct. 13, 2009, INTC jumped 4.5% in after-hours trading after blowing past Q3 expectations. The stock lost a good chunk of its gains the following day, ending the Oct. 14 regular session up 1.6%.
On July 14, 2009, INTC advanced 7.3% in after-hours trading after the company blew past Q2 expectations and set its Q3 revenue guidance above the Street view. The stock narrowed its gain slightly the next day, ending the July 15 regular session up 7.2%.
On April 14, 2009, the stock fell 5.6% in extended-hours trading after INTC beat with EPS but said it expected flat sequential revenue. Shares fell a slimmer 2.4% the next day.
On Jan. 15, 2009, the stock gained 3.8% in the extended-hours session after INTC met Q4 results. The gain was trimmed just slightly and shares closed up 3.4% during regular trading the following day.
On Oct. 14, 2008, INTC advanced 4.5% in after-hours trading after beating on earnings, meeting on revenue, and guiding revenue in a range that straddled the then-current Street view. The stock recorded a sharp reversal the next day, closing the Oct. 15 regular session down 5.9%.
On July 15, 2008, INTC edged up 0.4% in evening trading after beating on Q2 and setting its guidance in line to above expectations. It managed to eke out a higher gain the next day, rising 1% by the regular session close on July 16.
On April 15, 2008, INTC jumped 7.9% in after-hours action after posting better-than-expected Q1 results and in-line guidance. The gain was more subdued the following day, with INTC closing the April 16 regular session up 5.8%.
On Jan. 15, 2008, INTC dropped 14.3% during evening trading after INTC missed with Q4 estimates and guided for Q1 sales in line with Street view. The loss was reined in slightly the next day and INTC closed down 12.3%.
On Oct. 16, 2007, INTC gained 5% in evening activity after beating Q3 estimates and forecasting Q4 above Street views. Shares, though, lost a bit of ground the next day, ending the day session up 4.8%.
On July 17, 2007, INTC slipped 4.6% in night trading despite topping Q2 sales estimates and offering in line guidance. Shares eased a bit more the next day to end the regular session down 4.8%.
On April 17, 2007, INTC edged up 2% in after hours when the company met Q1 expectations and guided Q2 sales mostly below forecasts. Shares pared those gains the next day, closing the regular session up 1.7%.
On January 16, 2007, INTC dropped 3.8% in evening trading despite beating Q4 estimates and offering Q1 sales guidance in line with Street views. Shares eased a bit more the next day, ending the regular session down 5.6%.
On Oct. 17, 2006, INTC edged up 0.9% in night trading after beating Q3 estimates and offering Q4 guidance that was in line with expectations. The shares inched higher during the next day’s regular hours trading to close up 1%.
On July 19, 2006, INTC eased 1.4% in after-hours trading when the company missed Q2 sales estimates and guided for Q3 revenues to be below Street views. Shares tumbled further the next day, closing the regular session down 7.5%.
On April 19, 2006, INTC edged up 1% in evening trading when the company topped Q1 estimates but set lower Q2 and FY06 sales guidance. Its shares dipped the next day, closing the regular session down 0.5%.
On January 17, 2006, INTC slid 9% in night trading after missing Q4 EPS estimates and guiding for Q1 sales to be below Street consensus. The shares fell further the next day, ending regular hours down 11.5%.
On Oct. 18, 2005, INTC shed 3% in after-hours trading after the company beat expectations and guided in line to mostly lower on its forward revenue outlook. It saw much of that downside pare back in the Oct. 19 regular session, eventually ending the day down a mere 0.1%.
On July 19, 2005, INTC fell 4.4% after hours after Q2 sales met and EPS topped Street targets. The stock matched that decline in the July 20 regular session, also falling 4.4%.
On April 19, 2005 INTC shares advanced 3.2% in after-hours trading after the company beat expectations and guided sales in line with estimates. It saw the bulk of those gains evaporate between the bells on April 20 as INTC managed a mere 0.1% rise by the closing bell.
On Jan. 11, 2005 INTC added 3% in night trading after the company reported better-than-expected Q4 results. The upside was cut back modestly the next day as the stock closed the Jan. 12 regular session up 2.7%.
Back on the night of Oct. 12, 2004, INTC added 3.7% in after-hours trading after the company beat Q3 expectations and guided its Q4 sales in a range surrounding the Street view. INTC ended the Oct. 13 regular session with a narrower 3.5% gain.
INTC reported revenue shy of expectations the night of July 13, 2004, and the stock tumbled 4.7% in that night’s after-hours trade. It saw more aggressive selling in the following day’s regular session, ultimately ending the July 14 regular session down 10.5%.
Finally, back on April 13, 2004, INTC beat expectations and issued in-line guidance, and the stock closed evening play down 1.5%. It ended the following day’s trade off a more narrow 1%.
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.