BCS National Championship Free Prop Bet Pick – Sports Memo (blog)
Oregon vs. Auburn Prop Bet Will Auburn’s Michael Dyer Score a Touchdown? Recommendation: No (-130 @ Greek)
Auburn running back Michael Dyer has scored five rushing touchdowns all season. He’s not used in the passing game (1 catch) which means in order for us to lose this bet, he’ll need to punch one in on the ground. From looking at some of Auburn’s box scores, Dyer is not a top option inside the red zone. On three of his five touchdowns he had to reach pay dirt from 30+ yards out. The other two came in blowout games against Arkansas State and UL-Monroe in the early part of the season.
Since the game against Monroe, the Tigers have scored 29 rushing touchdowns with Dyer accounting for only three (all from outside the red zone). Onterio McCalebb looks to be the No. 2 option with eight touchdowns in Auburn’s final seven games. But the main key in Cam Newton who inside the red zone is likely to play a role in whatever points Auburn accumulates.
Newton is obviously the go-to guy whether he is passing or running the ball. And in short yardage, Newton out of the shotgun is all but an automatic. Now Dyer will get carries but as mentioned, he’ll likely need to spring for a big gain in order to reach the end zone. Oregon’s defense allowed a modest nine rushing plays of 30+ yards this season. They also allowed only 11 rushing touchdowns. Not a bad price here to take “No” on Dyer scoring a touchdown.